Predictability

by Milton on Sun, May 2nd, 2010

in Studies and rumors,Week 39

6 days til the due date!  What does this mean though?

Only 5% of babies are born on their due date.  Which leads one to the assumption that due dates are silly.  But, then again, 80% of babies are born within 2 weeks of their due date, so a 5% change on any given day is probably the highest percentage any day will get.  Then I heard on the Internet that 7 out of 10 (70%) babies are born AFTER their due date. Which is most likely a lie, because that doesn’t make sense.  Maybe 70% of babies born within 2 weeks of their due date are born after their due date?

The more I look into these statistics, the more I realize that people are just throwing numbers around.  Most likely, all of these numbers need to be qualified with “of all full-term babies”, which of course skews the numbers to be late since by definition it leaves out a good percentage of the early one.  And given that the US has the highest percentage of pre-term babies, I also highly doubt that these are entirely US numbers, or even from the last 3 decades.

Maybe we should raise Axelrod to be a statistician, because I’m 90% certain that 80% of people could really use a little help with 100% of these numbers.

Our doula is busy today with another client, and the midwife we’ve been working with is not on call for the next two days, so we’re hoping the numbers skew us for a Wednesday baby.  A Cinqo de Mayo baby.  He does seem to like it when Esther eats tacos… Anyone want to make a bet?

{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Kristy Sun, May 2nd, 2010 at 12:41 pm

Due dates mean nothing! I think they should just give us the month they are likely to be born in :) But I think it’s seems reasonable that the majority of first babies are born after their due date, it seems that way with the people I know anyway. Not so much with subsequent babies tho, they seem to come early. I was induced the day after my due date and not sure how long it would’ve been otherwise. She seemed super content to stay in there forever!

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2 Keewee Sun, May 2nd, 2010 at 1:11 pm

My b-day is May 10th so I’m excited for your little fellow Taurus! If he’s born then, he’ll share a birthday with Fred Astaire, myself, and Sid Vicious! But a 5/5 b-day will perhaps make it easier for his birthday parties to not overlap with Mother’s Day (always an issue for me).

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3 Esther Wed, May 5th, 2010 at 12:34 am

Oh man, a baby’s birthdate that overlaps Mother’s Day is kind of a mom’s pain in the butt, huh? I hadn’t thought of that! Throwing a birthday party on Mother’s Day doesn’t seem like a very stress free way to spend your time.

I had sort of fantasized about having a mother’s day baby until I saw this comment. :)

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4 Keewee Thu, May 6th, 2010 at 10:43 am

Haha! Once I got older it was fun to go out to a nice dinner with her and do a Mother’s Day/birthday joint outing. As a kid, planning birthday parties was tricky if the party fell on Mother’s Day weekend since some of my friends wouldn’t be able to go if they had plans with their families. But my mom’s an RN so we tended to do celebratory things on random days because she works a lot (Thanksgiving in spring, etc).

I’m psyched for you guys! You and your house look tops!

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5 Jen Sun, May 2nd, 2010 at 7:20 pm

Due dates should changed and called “Around this time dates”. I wonder if the statistics account for the births of twins or more? My mom informs me that twins are more likely to arrive sooner, as were my brothers.

Anywho, good luck :D

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6 Sandra Mort Sun, Jun 5th, 2011 at 4:48 am

I vote no on raising him to be a statistician. 84 percent of all statisticians truly hate their jobs. Then again, Axelrod could be a good name for a bank robber.

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